{"id":719,"date":"2020-11-02T12:40:45","date_gmt":"2020-11-02T12:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/?p=719"},"modified":"2020-11-02T13:56:15","modified_gmt":"2020-11-02T13:56:15","slug":"my-uninformed-guess-on-the-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/2020\/11\/02\/my-uninformed-guess-on-the-election\/","title":{"rendered":"My uninformed guess on the election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I think Trump wins convincingly, we get the verdict on Tuesday night, and riots break out all over the country as a result. <\/p>\n<p>As you know, the good money is on Biden. That&#8217;s what the polls and the experts say. That&#8217;s what <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kiplinger.com\/business\/601654\/kiplingers-2020-election-forecast\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">my friends at Kiplinger say<\/a>. But I&#8217;m not feeling it. <\/p>\n<p>Here are my reasons for believing that Trump will once again defy the polls. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> Conservatives are probably still loathe to admit, even to pollsters, that they&#8217;re supporting Trump, so I think the polls aren&#8217;t accurate.\n<li> The energy is clearly on Trump&#8217;s side. His supporters are fired up, while Biden&#8217;s are not. There&#8217;s a huge enthusiasm gap. Even here in deeply blue Maryland, I haven&#8217;t seen many Biden bumper stickers or yard signs.\n<li> It seems more blacks will vote Republican this year. Not a lot more, but maybe enough to make a difference. <\/ul>\n<p>There are lots of weird variables this year, including the pandemic and the volume of mail-in and early voting. Even the experts seem cautious in their predictions. (Once burned, twice shy.) But I think the president will pull it out, and then &#8230; maybe not &#8220;all Hell,&#8221; but a lot of trouble &#8230; breaks loose. Buckle up. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I think Trump wins convincingly, we get the verdict on Tuesday night, and riots break out all over the country as a result. As you know, the good money is on Biden. That&#8217;s what the polls and the experts say. That&#8217;s what my friends at Kiplinger say. But I&#8217;m not feeling it. Here are my &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/2020\/11\/02\/my-uninformed-guess-on-the-election\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;My uninformed guess on the election&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=719"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":725,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/719\/revisions\/725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crowhill.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}