A few thoughts on the election

  • Trump seems to have beaten expectations, but not by as much as I expected. Some people believe it could have been called for Trump last night, but … we can wait.
  • While I sympathize with people who want to be able to get the results on election day, I don’t see why it’s all that important. In the early days of the country you probably had to wait weeks or months to get the results.
  • The reluctance to call some states seems suspicious to me — not that I’m an expert on that process — and I suspect there will be legal fights in the states that are close, and there will be accusations of cheating, of “finding votes” at the last minute, etc.
  • Whatever ham-handed thing Trump says about this, it will be mischaracterized in the media. Count on it.

Looking back on this election cycle, I think everyone has to admit that their negative feelings towards the other side are at least in part based on lies and exaggerations. For example, Trump never said white supremacists were “very fine people,” although a lot of people believe that, and while Biden is showing signs of age, he is not senile.

We need to be on our guard against such manipulations.

What caused our modern partisanship?

There used to be more conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans than there are today. In that environment, it was necessary to compromise and work across the aisle. Neither side was lock-step on most issues. Even Al Gore (or at least his wife Tipper) was in favor of putting labels on records.

Today, the parties are becoming increasingly strident, and everyone is expected to toe the ideological line.

Why?

I had a long talk with Noman yesterday, and he had an interesting theory, which I’m merging here with some of my thoughts.

Politics used to be the boring, mysterious stuff that happened at the Capitol. Then came CSPAN, which gave back-benchers like Gingrich the opportunity to grab some attention by picking fights and calling names. Suddenly, politics was both accessible and interesting. It went from “watching paint dry” to watching a fight. Drama and conflict became the path to success.

One of the most visible fights was over abortion and the Supreme Court. Senators could no longer afford to approve qualified candidates. They were being watched. Failure to attack the other side was a sign of weakness. The folks back home wanted a fight.

Now here’s the weird thing. What the folks back home actually want is legal but restricted access to abortion — no late-term abortions, but no restrictions on very early abortions either. The parties, on the other hand, took extreme positions in both directions, allowing abortion up to the minute of birth or wanting to ban all abortions. (Note that extreme doesn’t mean wrong.)

Why did they go to the extremes? Perhaps for the same reason the news has.

The old adage was to be middle of the road and attract the most people. Or at least don’t repel them. But somewhere along the line people learned that taking a side paid off. It’s better to have the fierce loyalty of 10 percent of the population than the tepid interest of 40.

Again, the fight is far more interesting. Politics became drama.

This same tendency is at play in other areas as well. If you don’t follow the latest fashionable nonsense, you get attacked … viciously. It’s no longer a virtue to have friends with different views. You’re not even supposed to eat with grandma if she has offensive opinions.

It seems to me that a lot of independent factors, pointing generally in similar directions, have caused this slide towards extremism.

The important question is this: how do we get out of it?

My uninformed guess on the election

I think Trump wins convincingly, we get the verdict on Tuesday night, and riots break out all over the country as a result.

As you know, the good money is on Biden. That’s what the polls and the experts say. That’s what my friends at Kiplinger say. But I’m not feeling it.

Here are my reasons for believing that Trump will once again defy the polls.

  • Conservatives are probably still loathe to admit, even to pollsters, that they’re supporting Trump, so I think the polls aren’t accurate.
  • The energy is clearly on Trump’s side. His supporters are fired up, while Biden’s are not. There’s a huge enthusiasm gap. Even here in deeply blue Maryland, I haven’t seen many Biden bumper stickers or yard signs.
  • It seems more blacks will vote Republican this year. Not a lot more, but maybe enough to make a difference.

There are lots of weird variables this year, including the pandemic and the volume of mail-in and early voting. Even the experts seem cautious in their predictions. (Once burned, twice shy.) But I think the president will pull it out, and then … maybe not “all Hell,” but a lot of trouble … breaks loose. Buckle up.