Don’t rely on astronomers

A Researcher Says the Expansion of the Universe Is Just a Mirage. He Might Be Right.

I am far from an expert on cosmological matters, but I’ve always had a suspicion that our grand models about the universe are missing something important. For example, I think it’s not wise to put your trust in a theory that says we’re missing 80% of the mass in the universe (or whatever the number is) and then to have to theorize about where all that mass is hiding. The idea that the theory is missing something really important seems a lot more likely.

The article above says the assumption that the universe is expanding at an increasingly rapid pace might be an illusion. I have no idea if he’s right, but that’s precisely the sort of “you forgot something here” explanation that I’ve been expecting.

But cosmology doesn’t particularly interest me. What came into my twisted mind as I read that article was to wonder how many people bought into the idea that “science proves” that the universe had a beginning, that the beginning had to have a cause, and that cause was God.

The problem goes something like this. Proposition A leads to Belief B. Then Proposition A becomes dubious, but Belief B remains. (The problem is not unique to religion.)

You could see it as “undermining the foundation,” or “sawing off the branch you’re sitting on.” People have an amazing ability to believe one set of things that undermine some other set of things they believe, and not be particularly bothered by it.

The problem with beliefs that got a kick in the pants by some big “Proposition A” scenario is more complicated than that.

What actually happens is something like this. Proposition A has enough force to disrupt the person’s current view. He then goes through all the pieces and tries to create a new vision that incorporates Proposition A.

You can’t think of Proposition A as the bottom row of Jenga blocks, or anything like that — as if a belief system depends on one foundation stone. It’s more of a hub in a web-like matrix. Even if one hub is destroyed, the matrix can keep its basic shape.

If enough hubs are destroyed, the matrix will collapse, and the person will have to build a new one.

This way of looking at beliefs makes sense of confirmation bias. A person believes he has a tidy little matrix of beliefs that all work and play well together. Contrary data is like a little stone thrown against a fortress.

If something big comes along and knocks gaping holes in the fortress, that’s another matter. Then, suddenly, all those little stones the person had previously swatted aside with ease take on a different character, and some of them become parts of the new structure.

They’re going to have to start showing their work

The number of “not even remotely credible” things we keep hearing is getting to be too much.

The Secret Service can’t identify who brought the cocaine into the White House?

The FBI isn’t trying to protect Joe and Hunter Biden?

The Justice Department hasn’t been on a crusade against conservatives?

It’s possible that these things are true, but we have no reason to believe them. In fact, the default assumption should be that the people with power are lying to you.

If they want to establish any sort of credibility, they’re going to have to let people see their work.

“Why didn’t they fly the eagles to Mordor?” Or, the arrogance of simple solutions

It usually starts with “why don’t (didn’t) they just ____?”

(1) There’s a complicated situation. (2) There’s also an easy and obvious “answer” to the problem.

“Stop using carbon-based energy!”

“Tax the rich / Feed the poor / ’til there’s no rich no more.”

“Pay teachers more.”

“Teach the unemployed to code.”

Is there a name / label for this sort of simple-minded “solution”?

Trashmen’s lives matters

I’m working at home these days, so I see everything that happens on my street during the day. One of the things that bothers me is the trash and recycling trucks.

They go too fast, but worse than that, the guys who pick and empty the cans ride on the back and hold on. That can’t be safe. But is it legal? Are the waste management companies just breaking the rules to be more efficient?

In the big picture I guess it really doesn’t matter. They’re just men, so they’re expendable.

Thoughts on lists of “must read” books

  • If it doesn’t include the Bible, it’s questionable.
  • I always wonder whether the titles are on the list because they’re great or to fulfill some sort of quota.
  • Sometimes you see a very strange entry. E.g., on this list — The 30 Must Read Book of All Time — what is The Ocean at the End of the Lane by Neil Gaiman doing there? It’s not even Gaiman’s best book, let alone great. (The misspelling in the title is a clue that it might not be the best list.)
  • Is the list based on popularity, or on what some group of alleged experts says?