“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic”

I heard this quote (from Arthur C. Clarke) for the umpteenth time today, and while I think there’s an important insight here, the saying irritates me.

The important insight is that advanced technologies might be able to wow the superstitious mind.

The truth is that the technology doesn’t have to be all that advanced. Imagine visiting a group of people who don’t have writing. The ability to send a message with some scribbles on a piece of paper might seem like magic.

Here’s what I don’t like about the saying.

  • “Sufficiently advanced technology” sounds too much like the “No True Scotsman” fallacy.
  • He hasn’t defined magic.
  • People react differently to unexplainable phenomena. E.g., some said it thundered.

So while I don’t dispute that there’s a legit insight here, there’s so much wiggle room and ambiguity that it strikes me as a bit arrogant and condescending.

What are these strange new UFOs?

I’ve always regarded interest in UFOs as a bit nutty, but apparently the evidence has mounted to the point that it’s not a question of whether they exist, but what they are. This episode from Daily Wire is very helpful.

So, what are they?

Reports indicate that these craft demonstrate abilities that go way beyond anything we can do. Rapid accelerations, sudden 90-degree turns, disappearing and reappearing, no obvious signs of propulsion, etc.

A possible explanation is that these reports are incorrect, and these craft are not doing anything all that special. It’s possible, but I don’t consider that likely. “Top men” have reviewed this carefully and say this stuff is real and serious.

If these craft are from China or Russia, we’re in serious trouble. The good news is that explanation seems unlikely because the tech is so far ahead, and would represent a sudden and dramatic leap in capabilities. You usually see evidence of that sort of thing in other technologies. Or so I’m told.

The same applies to the assumption these are secret U.S. devices.

The idea that they’re aliens from another planet seems very goofy to me. Why the heck would aliens come all this way and just flick around here and there? Invade, or say hello, or something.

Someone will say aliens have already made contact and our governments are hiding it, which I also find unlikely. It’s not unlikely that the government would lie. That’s a dead certainty. It’s unlikely they’d be so competent at it for such an extended period of time.

We also need to consider that “alien” means more than just beings somewhat like us, with weird ears or extra fingers or something, who come from another place. If they are aliens, they could be so different from us that our attempts to understand their motivations or strategy would be pretty useless.

Some people will say they’re angels, to which I say (1) how is that all that different from saying they’re aliens?, and (2) I can hear Captain Kirk saying “Why does God need a space ship?” (Star Trek 5.)

What other options are there?

  • Some hidden culture that’s lived in secret on this planet all this time that we didn’t notice?
  • Time travelers?
  • A modern-day version of Captain Nemo?

I’m hoping it’s all a bit of a mistake, and these are just the modern equivalent of weather balloons, but … I’m afraid that’s probably not right.

Who attacked the Kremlin?

By now you’ve probably seen footage of an alleged drone attack on the Kremlin.

Putin is claiming this was an assassination attempt by Ukraine. That’s certainly one possibility, although it seems it might qualify as the lamest assassination attempt ever in history.

It could be a false flag operation by Russia. It could be Russian separatists. It could be a weird mistake, or … I suppose it could even be AI (although I seriously doubt that).

Who do you think did it, and will this escalate the conflict?

American distrust in the media is richly deserved

Americans fault news media for dividing nation: AP-NORC poll

  • The Russia hoax.
  • The refusal to cover the Hunter Biden laptop.
  • The “51 intelligence agencies” lie.
  • The ongoing cover-up of Joe Biden’s lies and poor mental state.
  • COVID.
  • Apparent slander against Dominion Voting.

“Nearly three-quarters of U.S. adults say the news media is increasing political polarization in this country….”

The only mystery is what the other quarter is smoking.