This article is discouraging.
The eve of Apple and Tesla’s destruction in China: American CEOs rarely outwit Beijing
The basic point is that China took the long view, lured in American business with low prices, learned all their secrets, and have either already or are about to eat their lunch.
One interpretation is that they outsmarted American businessmen, but another interpretation is that the American businessmen weren’t fooled at all, but were happy to take the short-term win even if it meant long-term losses. After all, they weren’t going to be CEO forever, and the investors want returns now.
That is probably the most likely scenario. Tim Cook and Elon Musk knew it was a short-term play, but it worked. For a time.
But now I’m going to turn this question completely on its head.
China is facing a serious population crisis, and people who allegedly know such things say they’re headed for a hard landing fairly soon.
It’s possible (although, IMO, quite unlikely) that American CEOs saw the even longer game — that China was planning for a future that is never likely to happen because they’ve planted the seeds of their own demise.
China has long-term plans and America can’t see past the 2-year election cycle. Sometimes it seems that American businesses can hardly see past the next quarterly report. That seems to give China an edge. But does it really? Are these long-term plans realistic? A lot can change in a decade, and a lot of things can’t be foreseen.
There’s no question that a lot of these billionaire businessmen are geniuses. That doesn’t mean they’re always leading their companies — and, to some extent, the United States — in the right direction.
I would like to see more long-term planning on our side, in business and in government. But I’m really hoping that evil carries the seeds of its own demise, and that China’s long-term plans will amount to very little in the end.
On the other hand, it’s not like the United States is righteous.