You probably heard that Southwest had to cancel a lot of flights over the weekend, and that others were delayed. (Mrs. Crowhill got caught up in the delays last night.)
Southwest blamed the troubles on air-traffic control issues and bad weather, but that explanation is being greeted with a lot of skepticism. Other airlines did not have significant problems, and the FAA disputes Southwest’s claim.
Some people are blaming Southwest’s vaccine mandate. People are walking off the job, coming in late, etc., in protest.
I don’t know how this will shake out, but it’s worth asking why Southwest would lie about it. (Assuming, as it seems likely, that they did.)
It’s also worth asking if vaccine mandates are doing more harm than good. It’s starting to look as if vaccine mandates are going to cause worker shortages in key sectors of the economy, and will harm the operation of basic infrastructure.
The pro-mandate people might be tempted to argue that this kind of pressure will finally get the holdouts to comply. Some people certainly will. Most people can’t afford to lose their jobs.
But is anybody counting the cost? Is anyone looking at this realistically?
Let’s say this works the way Joe Biden allegedly wants it to work, and the mandates force people into compliance. Even the most rosy picture would have to admit it won’t be an easy thing. A lot of careers will be ruined along the way. It will harm an already weak economy. Some companies will be destroyed. It will leave a lot of people very angry, discontent and distrustful. Many will want to punch back in some way.
Is it all worth it?
Good questions but I think those same questions need to be answered relative to not having mandates.
What happens if people quit because they didn’t want to work with a highly populated unvaccinated workforce? A lot of careers could be ruined. If the virus continues to spread, mutate and people continue to get sick and die, it could harm an already weak economy. Some companies could be destroyed, as what happed prior to vaccines being released. It could leave a lot of people angry and want to punch back that others, who make reckless decisions about their health, put those who are more prudent and their families at risk by refusing to be vaccinated. Is it all worth it?
If people believe the vaccines are effective enough to justify being mandated, then the vaccinated have little to fear. And if people who are vaccinated are still enough at risk that they don’t want to be near the unvaccinated, then is the mandate justifiable?
There’s no actual contradiction here, to be clear. If you tune your risk acceptance profile just right and have just the right opinion on practical vaccine efficacy (not too high and not too low), you can hold all of these positions consistently. But it’s an awfully delicate dance.
I think low-key awareness of the tension is one of the reasons people shout so much (argument weak here, pound desk.)
I also think some of it is the recognition that (1) there are nontrivial risks involved in getting the vaccine, and (2) the vaccinated are bearing the risk while the nonvaccinated are getting the benefit of public immunity. Nobody likes a free rider.
I think there are multiple different realities going on here. Some people don’t seem to believe there are any risks at all in getting one of the vaccines. In their minds, there is no good reason to be hesitant, and that’s what makes them mad.
QUOTE: If people believe the vaccines are effective enough to justify being mandated, then the vaccinated have little to fear. And if people who are vaccinated are still enough at risk that they don’t want to be near the unvaccinated, then is the mandate justifiable?
True, but the context of my questions was based on having no vaccine mandates.
That said, both sides have legitimate concerns and both should be considered. An indepth risk-benefits analysis needed to be conducted on all sides of this issue and then decisions made that give the best potential outcomes. Of course, there are no guarantees and there’s likely to be errors, no matter the decisions. As well…decisions-makers need to understand that no matter how good their decisions, there will be naysayers.
There are no solutions, only tradeoffs. Obviously there are risks in any approach. I’m asking if someone is considering these risks seriously, soberly, using data and good public policy methods. I have serious doubts. I think decisions are being made for crass political reasons.
QUOTE: I think decisions are being made for crass political reasons.
Agreed! Yet, isn’t that the typical motivation? For instance, the decision to endorse “warp speed” vaccine development created significant risk by suspending typical timing for ensuring safety. Of course, it was done to save lives but also for political advantage and financial gain.
This is interesting: Tucker Carlson: Why Is Everyone Lying About Southwest Airlines?
My question is…”where’s the evidence?”.
There’s a lot of talk on social media that this was some kind of coordinated effort by a rogue group of pilots to shut down the airline, to say that they’ve had enough and that they won’t put up with this. Yet, the company officials are saying that’s absolutely not true; the pilots’ union is saying that’s not true. They’re trying to show their data on their sick calls to show that that’s not true. Still, you have politicians like Ted Cruz, Donald Trump Jr., Sen. Ron Johnson, others, perpetuating this theory that it was some kind of sick-out to protest these vaccine mandates.
If management and unions are agreeing and publicly stating that it’s not true (typically opponents), I’m inclined to believe them. They are closer to the facts and them agreeing strengthens their position. Yet, if conservative politicians and pundits can produce “evidence” to verify their claims, I’ll reassess. Unfortunately, these types don’t always deal in facts and evidence but innuendo and conspiracies. Some are still unwilling to publicly admit the 2020 election wasn’t stolen. Nearly a year later, we’re all still waiting for evidence that can stand in a court of law (aka The Kraken) of widespread voter fraud.
Yeah, I agree it’s premature to assume that job issues are from Covid mandates.
Here’s an interesting article on people leaving jobs.
Months ago, a professional colleague predicted a big wave of people quitting jobs. She said there was a kind of pent of demand for people changing professions. E.g., in an ordinary year, X percent of people change jobs. Because of Covid, that was slowed. People were happy to stay in the job they had. But now … boom. It’s all happening at once.
At least that’s one possible explanation.
There’s also the hope of better salaries elsewhere, fear of working with the public, and, of course, fear of vaccine mandates. At this point we don’t know what is the best explanation.
I certainly don’t know anything besides what’s in the media, and I’m totally willing to believe that this is a non-event that’s being spun into something more significant than it is. That’s not exactly an unusual phenomenon on any side of any issue.
However, the interests of unions don’t always align with the desires of the rank and file, particularly what might be a vocal minority within the rank and file, especially when you’re talking about professional unions, so I don’t consider the union’s position on it 100% reliable. That doesn’t mean that what the union is saying is false, it just means that it doesn’t close the case for me.
QUOTE:However, the interests of unions don’t always align with the desires of the rank and file, particularly what might be a vocal minority within the rank and file, especially when you’re talking about professional unions, so I don’t consider the union’s position on it 100% reliable.
Based on recent polling, it seems unions may be representing the general view of the rank and file.
Employees are also becoming increasingly likely to favor employee vaccination mandates — 58% currently (September) say they strongly favor or favor such policies, up from 52% in July and August, and 49% in June.
Those are slim majorities, so I don’t think that refutes the idea that significant numbers of rank and file don’t align with the union and that therefore the union’s account may not reflect what’s actually going on with an important minority of their members. Forty-two percent of the membership being opposed to the mandates is certainly a potential source of conflict and rebellion against the leadership’s position. Also, I wouldn’t assume that pilots’ union members think similarly to U.S. union membership as a whole. I don’t assume that they don’t, but there are a lot of reasons why it might not make sense to assume that they do.
Of course, people can believe what they want. Yet, given the trends are increasingly favorable, the unions’ statement and management’s the same…it seems the preponderance of evidence supports that mandates were not the cause of the issues with Southwest last weekend.
That said, if some conservatives want to make the case that it was indeed vaccine mandates that caused the problem, all they have to do is produce the evidence. I’ll be waiting.
You can argue about this…
Last night my wife’s sister passed from Covid. She was ~65. IDK if she was vaccinated or even if vaccines were available to her since she lived near Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico.
She got Covid and her heart gave out. She was being treated in a public hospital since the family is poor. My wife had been trying to reach her sister for days and we hadn’t heard anything. Finally, my wife called her brother-in-law who also has COVID but was at home along with the niece who has COVID as well. Within 6 hours of hearing that she was in the hospital, the hammer dropped and we heard she had passed.
I’m very sorry to hear this. Please extend my condolences to your wife.
Underneath all the stupid policy questions is a genuine human tragedy.
I’m so very sorry to hear of your family’s loss. I hope, in time, the memories of your loved one will bring comfort and a smile comes before a tear. No matter how politicized this issue becomes, it doesn’t take away the reality that people are still losing their lives and it causes their loved ones pain.