Some very interesting things have happened in our response to #coronavirus. For one, we’ve all agreed that liquor stores are essential, and schools are not.
But seriously, what will be different when this all blows over?
- Will we still shake hands?
- Will we give each other more distance in public?
- Will we wash our hands more frequently?
- Will we invest more in stockpiles of pandemic response supplies?
The one that bugs me the most — will anyone ever be able to say “we can’t afford that?” when the whole country (except Rand Paul) wanted the Congress to spend $2 trillion.
Less sexual intercourse in the flesh. Human populations significantly shrink.
It will likely be akin to the 9/11 tragedy. It will be remembered as dark stain but people’s behavior probably won’t change significantly (especially after they find an effective vaccine). The advent of HIV/AIDS was thought to be a total game changer. Yet, years later people are still having casual, unprotected sex…when they know such behavior could negatively impact their health or kill them. As they say, the heart wants what the heart wants (despite the consequences).
Even before Covid-19, it may have been a difficult argument to control spending given the 2 trillion increase to the national debt since 2016. Even conservative fiscal hawks like Paul Ryan didn’t have much push back . Ironically, Rand Paul, the stimulus dissenter, has tested positive for Covid-19. I’m curious if his position would be the same if he weren’t wealthy and in a position of power to get priority access to medical care.
Okay, it’s fair game to make parallels, but how close are the parallels? I remember having to stay home for a couple days after 911, but not like this.
I think the lasting impact will depend in large part on how big this thing gets. E.g., the cultural effect of losing 100,000 people is probably very different than losing 3 million. (At least I’d hope so.)
It’s not about parallels, it’s about human nature. We’ve had previous tragedies that have taken millions of lives (e.g., HIV/AIDS, 1918 Flu Pandemic). After it leveled off or cured, people eventually went back to business as usual. I suspect they did so because the imminent threat was perceived to be gone. Unless there is a significantly sustained threat of death for Covid-19, I don’t see very much changing. As I said, the heart wants what the heart wants.
Hopefully, I’m wrong and this will be the thing that make people wake up and smell the coffee. Yet, I’m not holding my breath.
People have short memories, so things will quickly return to normal – except for the fact that world leaders will be loathe to relinquish the despotic powers they have seized as a pretext for dealing with this ‘crisis’.
As for the budget: “A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you’re talkin’ real money.”
Here are my predictions:
-Toilet paper will be *really* cheap for a while due to over-production and personal excess due to hoarding
-Take out dining at much nicer places will stick around and be more popular, particularly chains
-Online college will get a big boost and noticeably undermine (although not completely) the current college system
-Mass will see some changes: No more holding hands for Lord’s Prayer. Cup removed every winter during flu season. Etc.
-If this lasts into the fall, stock market will drop much further
-Also if it lasts into the fall, Trump won’t get re-elected
I still think that there is a very good chance that Trump will get re-elected. COVID-19 has completely overshadowed the Democratic primaries. Hardly anyone will vote in November. Whenever voter turn-out is low, the Democrats lose. I myself want Trump to lose because he is a total asshole, but I am afraid that the pandemic will actually work in his favor in spite of a decline in the economy.
I could see that Robin. The worst case scenario for the Democrats is that we start getting back to normal in July or early August leaving them very little time to finish up the primary (or worse, chose to not finish it and the resulting howls of unfairness to Bernie again) and hold a well orchestrated convention. At the same time, it’s long enough before the election for the market to start rebounding and feel like it’s over before it comes time to vote.
So I’d say any recovery before September suggests Trump re-election is better than 50/50 both because that’s what I would have thought would have happened had this never occurred and because of the reasons you’ve mentioned, Robin.
Nevertheless, I’m sticking to my prediction that if we’re still all sitting at home in September or October, heads will start to roll for the lack of progress, and Trump’s head will be at the top of the list.
(For clarity’s sake: I’m not making any statements in regards to what I want to happen or think would be best, merely what I predict to happen.)
From a rational point of view, Trump would indeed be in hot water if the crisis continues well into the autumn or if the economic repercussions are being felt at election time. After all, he began reacting to the crisis very dismissively and even rather flippantly. However, “from a rational point of view” I say and speak in the subjunctive, because that is actually not how people approach these things. I do not expect people to be rational. Moreover, an emergency situation can even enhance the power of the president, while Fox (now a news agency that totally follows the model of Pravda) will most likely be making a case that the Dems are somehow to blame for the situation. I do not keep track of conspiracy theories, but I expect some may even be saying that the Dems (or the Clintons!) got COVID-19 started to undermine Trump. His die-hard fans (including those grotesquely hypocritical evangelicals) will suck that down like it’s nobody’s business and they are very enthusiastic voters, whereas there will not be a lot of enthusiasm among potential voters for the Dem candidate. However this turns out, you can rest assured that this election will be extremely bloody and brutal, dividing the nation more than ever at precisely a time when unity is desperately needed. That being said, I hope that I am wrong.
I agree. It’s already happening…Trump’s approval ratings have gone up despite his initial attitude and actions relative to Covid-19.
At election time, people won’t be making their decision on a “rational” basis…it will be based on how they “feel” at that time. Enough people may be swayed towards Trump given the constant media attention he’ll get from this pandemic and his typical antics. As well, Trump and his supporters have already vilified the Democrats by initially saying Covid-19 was a hoax initiated by them. Now that it’s somehow “real”, they will surely be the bogeyman and everything that will go wrong will be the fault of the Democrats. Assuming Biden is the Dem nominate, he won’t be able to compete with the media attention given to Trump. As is, he’s been virtually invisible since the escalation of Covid-19 in the US. Also, people tend to like the devil they know versus the one they don’t. So, for better or worse, they already know Trump. Yet, they don’t know what a Biden presidency would bring. If they perceive it as going back to the former status quo (in which many were already disgruntled), they will likely just stick with Trump and ride out the storm.
It is ironic because it was looking like the charge of “socialism” leveled against the Democratic candidate was going to be the dominant theme of Trump’s campaign. Now it seems that his administration is leaning more and more towards the very thing that he was attacking. I am afraid that there is so much irrationality among people that he will continue that verbal attack quite successfully while becoming a full-fledged socialist. So I am predicting that by the end of the year the USA will have taken a very deep plunge into the irrational. But again, I hope I’m wrong.
Indeed, that’s an irony that’s been present much of Trump’s presidency. He and Republicans do what they use to criticize in Democrats and it’s rationalized to be “right” for them (but wrong for their political opponents).
For instance, increasing the national debt was quite taboo when the Democrats were doing it. Now, it’s just a part of governing…not very much is said about it by either side. In the recent past, it was deemed responsible governance to hold up a Supreme Court nomination during an election year. Now, it’s considered a dereliction of duty to do so. A Senate oath of impartial justice was once considered sacrosanct, even containing the language…”so help you God”. Yet, it was publicly announced by key Republican leaders, that despite the oath, they would not be impartial. As well, Covid-19 was considered by Trump, his administration and right wing media as a political hoax and accepted as such by supporters. Suddenly, that changed and now it’s a “real” pandemic and Trump is being heralded as a true visionary. It’s as if their initial statements and sentiment never existed. Once upon a time, that dynamic would have been considered as lunacy. Yet, now it’s normal and happens regularly, without issue. It’s as if some aspects of Orwell’s 1984 have come to fruition.
That said, I suspect we’ll see this dynamic play out again relative to Covid-19 and this impending election. If so, then it may be an ingredient in Trump’s reelection. We’ll see. As I’ve said previously, very little is predicable these days and the old playbook is out the window. If nothing else, it will be fascinating to see this play out.
A lawyer friend posted an article to LinkedIn about how all these closings and restrictions and stay home orders are flatly illegal and unconstitutional. I agree. But they are also necessary. Which raises interesting questions.
It also creates an interesting dynamic relative to religious liberty. Seems some churches/religious organizations find this an infringement on their rights and refuse to comply. Here’s a couple of instances where this is currently playing out.
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-30/florida-megachurch-pastor-charged-with-defying-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/29/falwell-liberty-university-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-152467