That he’s bungled American energy policy? That he sounds like he’s got advanced dementia? That he’s been ham-handedly (and dishonestly) attacking a successful and popular governor? That stories about his own (past) sexual abuse issues have started to ease into public consciousness?
Maybe, but the 538 blog has it’s only collection of possible reasons: What’s Behind Biden’s Declining Approval Rating
- It’s normal and expected, given recent experience.
- Could be the twists and turns with Covid.
- Independents have soured on Biden as he’s been revealed not to be the moderate we were told.
- Concerns about the economy.
Those all seem reasonable to me.
I think the bottom line is that we have a new political reality. There’s a percentage that will support a candidate — almost no matter what he does — simply because he’s on “our side,” and we can’t give an inch to those horrible cretins on the other side. The opposite also holds: there’s a percentage who will never support a guy from the other side. That provides both a floor and a ceiling for approval ratings.
According polling professionals, the drop in Biden’s average approval rating between his first and second quarters is typical for recent presidents. It essentially matches the change for Trump and George W. Bush, and is slightly more than the decline in Obama’s average. Clinton’s approval rating significantly declined between his first and second quarters. Ratings have been more likely to decline rather than increase during presidents’ third quarters in office. Obama had the largest drop but other presidents had drops of two to four points during this period, including Eisenhower, Nixon, Carter, Reagan and Trump.
So, the honeymoon may be ending for Biden with Dems and Independents. Republicans have never rated him highly and likely never will. It will be interesting to see how Afghanistan, Covid, inflation, and the economy (and any other surprises) impact Biden’s polling trends going forward. Yet, for now, it appears Biden’s trends are following what’s typical.