I listened to Michael Shermer interview Sarah Scoles about her work on UFOs, and why people believe we’ve been visited by aliens.
Shermer mentioned a time he was debating a UFO believer, who admitted that the vast majority of alleged sightings are explainable. Let’s say 95%. Shermer asked what it was about some people who feel the need to explain the 5%.
It’s an interesting question, because in some areas, it doesn’t need to be 5 percent. It could just be one individual case.
If somebody could produce Big Foot’s body, or the Lock Ness monster, that would settle the matter.
The question is typically cast as a matter of evidence, but it’s really a matter of belief. Shermer believes there are no aliens, so he feels justified ignoring the five percent, while the other guy believes in aliens, so the five percent is very important to him.
Which belief is justified?