I think Trump wins convincingly, we get the verdict on Tuesday night, and riots break out all over the country as a result.
As you know, the good money is on Biden. That’s what the polls and the experts say. That’s what my friends at Kiplinger say. But I’m not feeling it.
Here are my reasons for believing that Trump will once again defy the polls.
- Conservatives are probably still loathe to admit, even to pollsters, that they’re supporting Trump, so I think the polls aren’t accurate.
- The energy is clearly on Trump’s side. His supporters are fired up, while Biden’s are not. There’s a huge enthusiasm gap. Even here in deeply blue Maryland, I haven’t seen many Biden bumper stickers or yard signs.
- It seems more blacks will vote Republican this year. Not a lot more, but maybe enough to make a difference.
There are lots of weird variables this year, including the pandemic and the volume of mail-in and early voting. Even the experts seem cautious in their predictions. (Once burned, twice shy.) But I think the president will pull it out, and then … maybe not “all Hell,” but a lot of trouble … breaks loose. Buckle up.