… of the state of the pandemic?
I would say that it’s the number of deaths, and/or the number of people in critical care.
“Number of cases” isn’t right because (1) some people suffer no ill effect, (2) we’re testing more, and (3) it’s very possible (as it has been reported by some experts) that the virus is weakening. Whether that’s true or not (I hope it’s true), “number of cases” is the wrong measure.
You obviously need to know the ratio of the number of cases to the number of deaths and serious cases (e.g. with permanent effects). From all this data it looks like it is still a force to be reckoned with.
I agree that ratio would be useful, but since testing has been inconsistent (e.g., we didn’t have a lot of testing early, and have more testing now), it might paint an incorrect picture. IOW, since there was not much testing in March and April, we don’t know if the ratio of cases to serious cases has changed.
Still … it will be a useful ratio going forward, even if it might be an erroneous measure for looking back.
And I agree that this is still a serious issue. I wish that wasn’t such a political issue.
I’d say all of the above. With a novel virus, it’s critical to have as many data points as possible.
As well, given it’s a very contagious virus, the number of cases is important to understand if it’s spreading and where it poses the greatest risk of becoming of a serious illness and/or fatalities.
Amen, about the politicization of this pandemic. You’d think that life and death would be ONE thing that wouldn’t be partisan…not so…the battle rages on.
I agree the that best measure is the number of hospitalizations and deaths. The number of people tested (with results) is also useful, but it is clear that there are a lot of people running around who are asymptomatic who have never been tested and may never be tested. So in the end, hospitalizations and deaths are the best measure of how bad things are with the coronavirus. In my neck of the woods, our hospitals haven’t come close to being overrun with coronavirus patients. And we’ve only had a few deaths, all of whom were over 60 years of age and with pre-existing conditions. It’s hard for me to get too worked up about the second wave the media talks about when our first wave wasn’t all that much.
I should have mentioned, that to put things in perspective, the coronavirus death rate so far in my county is 15 per 100,000 people. Nationally, the automobile accident fatality rate is 12 per 100,000, which is down from the numbers twenty years ago (1999) when it was 15.3 per 100,000. So our coronavirus rate to date is equivalent to the national automobile fatality rate in 1999.
Hospital capacity is a good measure. One local hospital here in Tulsa, Hillcrest, is out of capacity. Governor has Covid. City council passed mandatory mask ordinance indoors in businesses. Retailers are jumping on the bandwagon. Walmart making it mandatory. Inside Walmart today was 90+% compliance. Some assholes, they must be special, taking off their masks inside. Big change from a week ago.
It’s one thing for a governor or prez to say they don’t want to make a mandatory law/reg. It’s another to totally abdicate your position of leadership and not promote masks with all the strength you can muster. Trump did get rounds of golf in the last few weekends, though. I feel good about that.
It seems hospitalization and death rates are more tolerable measures for some. Since they are now rising, it will be interesting to see if those in charge will rise to the occasion to do what’s necessary to help reverse the trend.
Oh wait, wasn’t it just a few weeks ago Pence indicated “we are winning the fight against the invisible enemy…the truth is that we’ve made great progress over the past four months, and it’s a testament to the leadership of President Trump” Didn’t Trump say…“it’s under control” (many times) and “it will disappear” and “…I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute and is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning…”? In May, didn’t Fox News, Trump, Pence, and others laud the expertise of Governor DeSantis and Governor Abbott for not only controlling the virus spread but declaring them as a model for other states to follow? Even DeSantis was singing his own praises then. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm6yjTrGkLc Yet, currently, it seems as if rising hospitalizations and death rates in these areas and others are telling a different story.
Well, the daily death total topped 1,000 again for the first time since May. Sort of clear it’s not “just going to go away.” Although, you can expect Cheeto Benito to claim he was correct when in 2030 everyone has been exposed and infected and that’s the reason it just went away. Sort of like Hirohito being able to claim he was a peace maker after getting two atomic bombs dropped on his country.
Hospitals in Tulsa are at capacity. OK governor has Covid. He walked around for months everywhere he went without a mask and not promoting masks.
What we have is a piss-poor excuse for leadership in this country. But, we probably have what we deserve in the me generation.
https://www.fox23.com/news/local/covid-19-patients-overflow-tulsa-hospital-virus-cases-rise/PYL3WY6ZHZFPNBQZB3ANBNLFRI/
QUOTE: What we have is a piss-poor excuse for leadership in this country.
I’m old enough to remember when Ebola struck the US and elicited criticisms of mismanagement by Obama and his administration…despite only having a total of 11 cases and 2 fatalities. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkUHbdqCoOs Come to think of it, even the sight of the president wearing a tan suit was thought to be a national crisis, by some. But, I digress.
Now, it seems those who were quick to criticize the handling of the Ebola crisis are somewhat silent and/or minimizing the impact of Covid-19…even lauding praise to some Republican leaders. To date we have over 4 million cases, over 140,000 dead (and counting), hospitals are at compacity in some hot spots and the virus is still not contained. Weren’t the American people told by Trump (multiple times) that Covid-19 would just “disappear” and it was “under control”? Well, the summer is here and it’s HOT! Wasn’t the heat supposed to minimize it? Yet, Covid-19 still rages on and we have to endure “leadership” that does things like:
•Hold rallies in virus hotspots—contrary to official administration guidance—resulting in some participants, secret service and other staff testing positive for Covid-19. As well, the virus increased in Oklahoma and Arizona after those events…surprise, surprise.
•Health professionals have been publicly discredited by members of the Trump administration (e.g., Fauci) for merely telling the truth and attempting to keep people safe.
•Trump retweeted Chuck Woolery, accusing everyone (CDC, Media, Democrats, Doctors) of lying about Covid-19. When did Chuck Woolery become an infectious disease expert? Why should Americans view him as being credible in matter? Ironically, just a few days later, Chuck’s family was impacted by the reality of Covid-19.
•Erratic guidance and decision-making relative to state, church, and school re-openings.
•Trump misrepresenting the impact of increased cases of Covid-19, despite health professionals and people in his administration stating the contrary.
•After months of providing mixed messages about masks and refusing to wear one publicly, Trump tweeted a picture of himself wearing one and declared it patriotic. That lasted until his fund-raiser later the same evening, where he nor many others were wearing masks nor social distancing.
•Masks have been made into a political symbol of loyalty and people have been influenced to believe they were being patriotic by not wearing them in public.
In early days, some minimized the impact of Covid-19 by comparing it to the Flu and car fatalities. CDC estimates US Flu fatalities range from 12,000 to 61,000 annually and US car fatalities are estimated at approximately 37,000 annually. Given Covid-19 has claimed 2 to 3 times the amount of Flu and accident victims (in just 5 months), could it be time for the public to take the advice of healthcare professionals over political leaders? Despite, the deaths and urging from public health professionals, we still have people who believe this is all a political hoax. I wonder where they got that idea? Just this week, I overheard someone saying there’s nothing really wrong in Texas and Florida and it will suddenly disappear after the election. How many more deaths will it take to convince people to take this seriously? Shouldn’t Trump cancelling the Florida portion of the convention be a hint? After all, he insisted the show MUST go on…which was his motivation for moving it to FL. Do these people really think the governors of TX, AL, and OH would have issued mask mandates and fear crossing Trump, if this were merely a political hoax?
So, how long will our president and some in his administration act like Covid-19 isn’t a force to be reckoned with? Well, this week, he finally admitted that it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. Yet, I wonder how long the sentiments of “teleprompter Trump” will last before he goes back to his former stance. How is it that other major nations have been successful in getting their cases and death rates down? It’s no wonder Americans have been banned from many other countries. I can’t say I blame them. It would be poetic justice if Canada and Mexico caught some US citizens illegally crossing their borders and detained them in cages.
That said, I’m still waiting for the “leaders” who claimed that some things are “more important than life” to lead by example and get out and about in the public. I want to see them send their kids to or visiting public schools (especially the governor of Missouri). I want to see them at the gyms and barbershops. I want to see them visiting meat-packing plants and other places where the virus has spread. I want to see Governor Kemp open the Governor’s mansion in Georgia. Most of all, I want to see the “leadership” telling the truth and stop playing politics with people’s lives. Maybe if that had been done in February, we might be like other countries with much lower cases, death rates and the economy fully open. I guess “our” way of handling this virus was all a part of…”Making America Great Again”!
There seemed to be quite a push from Republicans for reopening public schools. Yet, in Florida, a pandemic hotspot, it seems leading Republican politicians are a bit non-committal about sending their children to school. Marco Rubio, wants to see how things are going closer to the time of opening before making a decision. Senator Rick Scott says, “My daughters are going to be more focused on distance learning right now to make sure their children are safe”. Isn’t it interesting that he used the word “safe”. So, if his own daughters don’t follow his political rhetoric, why should others? You know what they say about trusting a chef that won’t eat their own food, eh?
Also interesting is this account from a Florida YouTuber as to the state of things in Florida. It’s one thing to hear the political rhetoric but quite another to hear from someone who’s living through it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4Y_0NYDCjk
https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine
So much for consistent leadership on masks like Kayleigh recently lied about. Only thing consistent is the orange menace’s trying to promote himself as never wrong and an expert on everything. So, why not retweet someone who says masks are not necessary because we already have the cure—HCQ. Wish to god it were true. The evidence would be overwhelming and we wouldn’t have 150,000 dead from the Trump disease.
OMG! Today’s White House Covid-19 press conference rivaled the debacle when Trump mused about injecting disinfectant into the human body. Disinfectant companies had to issue immediate warnings not to do that. Today’s exciting episode featured Trump bemoaning Dr. Fauci having better approval ratings than him. Really? But, the jewel in the crown was when he stated the alternative medicine doctor he tweeted about was an important voice in addressing Covid-19. Yet, he knew nothing about her. That’s too bad because the things she promoted were in conflict to things he supported just last week. As well, contradicted the guidance of his administration. She also had a number of interesting qualities highlighted in the article smitemouth posted above. Who knew medicine contained DNA from aliens and demons can have sex with people in their sleep?
Nevertheless, if the good doctor and Trump are right about hydroxychloroquine being a “cure” for Covid-19, why don’t we see evidence of that? Why haven’t most studies confirmed this assertion? Why has the FDA cautioned against its use for Covid-19? We have nearly 150,000 deaths and continuing spikes in different parts of the county (particularly Florida…which was considered a model by the President and others just a couple of months ago). Maybe this drug could slow or reverse this trend? Wouldn’t this be a great resource to help the economy and schools open up safely? Yet, we don’t see that. What we see is a lot of wishful thinking and inaccurate statements from the President. In this case, it could put some at risk given the side effects of hydroxcholorquine.
Oh for the days of how the Ebola crisis was managed…when there were only 11 total cases, 9 recoveries and 2 unfortunate fatalities.
But didn’t we know that he won’t be able to stay on course with the “new tone”? He held it up for about a week, and now he is already going off script to the point where some of us myself are actually feeling somewhat sorry for him. And I’m sure we haven’t seen the worst of it. Be braced for some incredible excursions into La La Land! The folks in the Biden camp are loving it.