by Greg Krehbiel on 14 March 2017
I’m watching the disappointing snow / sleet mix in Maryland today and reflecting on my observation that snow around here is almost always less than the weathermen predict.
Why is that?
I realize weather is hard to predict. One of my science teachers liked to say that the only thing more complicated than weather is human behavior. So I don’t expect them to always get it right. But my perception is that they usually get it wrong in the same direction. By overestimating.
It’s possible my perception is false and they get it wrong equally in both directions. It would be interesting if there were some data on that.
But it’s also possible that the business of news comes into play here. What if, for example, it helps ratings if the weathermen predict on the high side of the range?
2017-03-14 » Greg Krehbiel