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A bad day for Trump?

by Greg Krehbiel on 8 November 2017

The elections favored the Democrats yesterday, which will be interpreted as a repudiation of Trump.

I’m sure there’s some truth to that interpretation, but I always wonder how far to take that kind of analysis since there are always other factors at play. For example, when Republican Larry Hogan beat Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown in deeply blue Maryland, was that a repudiation of Martin O’Malley, or the Democrats in general? Or was it simply that people liked the jolly, positive fat guy more than the sour, somewhat friendless and incompetent Brown?

In Virginia, the campaign messaging was particularly vicious. Maybe one candidate’s lie did better than the other’s.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m sure anti-Trump sentiment had something to do with the Democratic wins yesterday. But I think that can be overblown.

2017-11-08  »  Greg Krehbiel

Talkback x 8

  1. Dave Krehbiel Dave Krehbiel
    8 November 2017 @ 3:27 pm

    Donald Trump (R) got 45% of the Virginia vote in 2016. Gillespie (R) got 45% of the Virginia Gubernatorial vote yesterday.

    Donald Trump (R) got 41.8% of the New Jersey vote in 2016. Guadagno (R) got 42% of the New Jersey Gubernatorial vote yesterday.

  2. Greg Krehbiel Greg Krehbiel
    8 November 2017 @ 3:29 pm

    Interesting. That implies that VA and NJ are no more anti-Trump now than they were on election day.

  3. William
    8 November 2017 @ 11:53 pm

    Per exit polls in The Washington Post:

    56% of survey respondents said Trump was a factor in their vote, with 17% of respondents voting to express support for Trump, and 34% of respondents saying they voted to express opposition to Trump.

    57% of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job as president, compared to just 40% who said they approved.

  4. Greg Krehbiel Greg Krehbiel
    9 November 2017 @ 9:11 am

    How does that compare with those figures in the presidential election?

    The question, istm, is whether VA and NJ have become more anti-Trump since the election.

  5. smitemouth
    9 November 2017 @ 9:44 am

    Fraulein Laura Ingoebbels on Fox said that Ed Gillespie lost because he didn’t fully embrace Trump. Does the White House e-mail her the talking points directly?

    Some other person has said that like Communism, Trumpism can never fail–it can only be failed by the unfaithful.

  6. Greg Krehbiel Greg Krehbiel
    9 November 2017 @ 9:47 am

    I had more respect for Ingraham before she became a Fox News host. She seems to have doubled down on being obnoxious. But it’s going too far to try to link her to Goebbels.

  7. Scott Wicker
    9 November 2017 @ 1:25 pm

    Fraulein Ingoebbels is the evil female twin-counterpart of Mr. Hannity. So I reckon she’s smart enough to compose her own talking points.

  8. Dave Krehbiel Dave Krehbiel
    9 November 2017 @ 5:13 pm

    @William: regarding expressing support for Donald Trump, I am surprised that even 17% would express support publicly for Donald Trump.

    Why should I bother to even have a conversation with a person taking an exit poll? I would imagine the overwhelming majority are employed by the media and most likely liberals. And liberals will attack you if you express your own opinion instead of theirs.

    Here is my opinion: it is liberals, not conservatives, who will use violence To suppress dissent.

    Personally,I don’t respond to surveys. I avoid Facebook discussions about politics. but in the privacy of the election booth, I will quietly vote, privately, secretly. Do not forget, the people who are taking these polls are the same people who predicted that Hillary would win.

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