John Krehbiel
Dede Scozzafava, Republican, Quits House Race in Upstate New York – NYTimes.com
by John Krehbiel on 1 November 2009
It will be very interesting to see how this race comes out. The district, although Republican, is also fairly moderate. A candidate who reflects the views of the region was forced to drop out because the Wingnut wing of the party said she was too liberal.
So will the district elect a wingnut, or go Democrat?
But the main reason I bring this up is this curious quote:
“She didn’t want to be labeled as a spoiler,” said the person, who requested anonymity because private conversations were involved.
Seems to me, if you’re going to call someone a spolier, it should be the third party candidate, don’t you think?
via Dede Scozzafava, Republican, Quits House Race in Upstate New York – NYTimes.com.
2009-11-01 » John Krehbiel
1 November 2009 @ 9:40 am
Just read this op-ed on the same thing. It contains this interesting passage:
1 November 2009 @ 10:35 am
When the NYT calls a Republican a “moderate,” you can be sure he’s a liberal. (Yes, I know in this particular case it’s a woman, which is why I said “he” — I was referring to the general case.)
And what is it that makes Hoffman a “wingnut”?
The problem here stems from the nature of political parties. The party controls the candidate, not the people who are electing him. The phenomenon plagues both parties.
2 November 2009 @ 12:48 am
If Dede Scozzafava reflects the views of the district, why was she running dead last in polls? The polls showed Hoffman leading, some too close to call ahead of the Democrat, but still leading.
Scozzafava was selected in a caucus that apparently didn’t represent the views of Republicans. Now, Dede has thrown her support to the Democrat. Hard to say she’s a Republican even in name anymore.
2 November 2009 @ 9:39 am
Here’s an interesting piece on this topic.
Conservative revolt good news for Republicans
2 November 2009 @ 11:43 am
That is an interesting piece. Goes to show what political theorizing is worth most of the time, I guess.
ISTM that the relevant question is whether Scozzafva did or did not represent the local Republican point of view. It could be that those who put name in hoped to capture moderate voters who were not Republicans. It also could be that the Republicans of that district used to be more moderate on average, but the moderates have been run off.
2 November 2009 @ 11:53 am
Hoffman is leading polls right now. If the Republicans aren’t behind Hoffman, who is it?
4 November 2009 @ 11:33 am
Apparently, not so much in the poll that matters.
4 November 2009 @ 12:44 pm
I guess. It was close and there was still a Republican listed on the ballot. Hard to say what would have happened with a different ballot and if Dede hadn’t suddenly thrown her support to the Democrat. Funny she withdrew from the race saying she didn’t want to be a spoiler and then played exactly that role.
Probably some moderate Republicans voted for Dede and some Dede stalwarts might have switched to Owens.
I repeat (and slightly moderate) my point, if Republicans didn’t support Hoffman, how did he end up with 45% of the vote? More phantoms bused in by Health Insurance companies?
4 November 2009 @ 12:53 pm
Of course some, maybe many, Republicans supported Hoffman. But this particular election shows the danger to the Republican party of this RINO idea.
It would be interesting to see just how many people voted Republican out of party loyalty rather than in support, how many crossed party lines, how many independents there were and how they voted, etc.
It is funny that she only became a spoiler after withdrawing, claiming that she did not want to be one.
4 November 2009 @ 1:51 pm
I’m sure some people voted Republican out of straight party loyalty. Dede was the only Republican listed on the ballot and got some of those votes.
Surely, few Democrats voted for Hoffman, right? Surely much of Hoffman’s 45% were Republicans. I haven’t seen exit polling, which is as unreliable as pre-election polling (if not more so), but I would suspect that most of those who self-identified as Republican voted for Hoffman.
I think the fact that Dede was heading for failure in a district that had been Republican since 1890 (or something) shows exactly how dangerous this RINO idea is. Of course, her throwing her support for a Democrat showed ultimately what kind of Republican she turned out to be.
4 November 2009 @ 3:06 pm
The Big News, IMO, is that a third-party candidate did remarkably well.